## Starting an estimation …

You have data and you don’t know how to use them to estimate the cost of new products (or software, or activities, etc …) especially in the conception phase, when, because the definition state does not allow it yet, any classical approach (detailed) is impossible. However, even then, you consider that a realistic forecast is necessary to help you make a decision.

Our softwares can help you to deal with your data correctly.

If you have little data, MAP-H is the software, at least for mechanical, et/ou electric, and/or electronic products, whatever their functions are, whatever size or application domain (from a consumer product to a product for space as well as nuclear or aircrafts …). MAP-H allows you to estimate, with buil-in algorithms (these can be adjusted to your needs) all the life cycle costs : development, production, maintenance, modifications.

If you have more data, classify them by familiesand add the relatif characteristcis for each product (or software, or activity, …). EstimLab will help you estimate very quickly the cost of a new item belonging to that family.

La manière de réaliser cette estimation est – pour chaque famille – de développer une A mathematical relation between the cost and the products’ characteristics, is developed for each family in order to to make an estimation possible. Many procedures are available to first analyse the data quickly so any abnormality that could disrupt the quality of the relationship. Once the abnormalities found – and resolved – the search for a relation can start. The starting point is, if each product is defined by several characteristics, to find out which charcateristics really determine the cost (EstimLab has several procedures to help you and they obly take a few seconds). You then choose the kind of relation you wish (amongst four) unless you can’t really choose, which then leads you to another procedure. If that choice is possible, EstimLab will calculate the relation by trying to make it as close as possible to your data ; this takes less time than one minute! Two procedures are available to get there

- the classical one, rather obsolete now – it existed in the 19th century – consists in finding the relation’s coefficients by minimizing the sum of squares of residuals between this relation and the data. This procedure has – at least in cost domain – several serious disadvantages ; some authors have tried to make up for these disadvantages, but these are only stopgaps …

- the modern one – entirely developed in our tool – consists in minimizing the sum of the absolute values of the distances. It is an extension of the « median » very well used by the statisticians when analyzing distributions.

Once the relation found, cost estimation of any new product, for which you only need to know the characteristics that are « cost drivers », can be done in one second. EstimLab also give you immediately the confidence interval (customizable) of the estimated cost, taking in account, if necessary, the uncertainty – that can still exist when the estimation is required – regarding the values of the characteristics.