The pre-project

You base your forecasts on information, and tools. These and tools are not always what you would prefer : in many cases, they would require, in order to deliver more reliable results, more detailed information : you do not have them at the pre-project phase. Getting them would be too complex and time consuming for your requirements.

How can you forecast when the new pre-project is too remote from your past projects ? How to make a sufficiently simple extrapolation ?

For lack of something better, decision makers often rely on a subjective analogy … knowing that they miss an objective and quantitative approach. Some try to get it from statistics, which can be effective when environment is technologically stable : based on past results, they can only directly extrapolate these results. Their results’reliability is sometimes incompatible with the new business environment.

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